House prices will fall by up to 20% over the next 2 years, a representative from global financial services firm, Morgan Stanley, told the media yesterday.
Speaking at the Wriglesworth Consultancy’s third annual Great Housing Market Debate, Managing Director of Morgan Stanley David Miles said that he was not anticipating a recession in the UK.
Despite recent gloomy predictions surrounding the topic of house prices, experts agree with Miles, saying that a recession is very unlikely. Miles Shipside, Commercial Director of Rightmove, said, “There is a large gap between sellers’ expectations and buyers’ ability to pay. The market needs to openly accept a 10% reduction in house prices to achieve an orderly correction to affordability – and the current drop in house prices is a good start.”
A drop in the number of house sales this year raised concerns among analysts. Richard Donnell, Director of Research at Hometrack told the media that a decrease in house prices would improve the situation and would especially benefit first-time buyers who needed help getting into the market.
Harsh new conditions set by banks and building societies after the sudden demise of Bear Stearns has made it more difficult for first-time buyers to penetrate the housing market. Lenders, desperate to reduce their exposure to risky debt, are turning away borrowers with small deposits or a credit-record glitch as small as a single missed payment. Analysts say that first-time buyers are being hit the hardest as lenders are determined to grant credit only to the lowest risk loans.
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